Ours, losing this benefit, would need a higher freight out, in
which, therefore, they will be underbid by the British. They must then
retire from the competition. Some no doubt will try other channels of
commerce, and return cargoes from other countries. This effect would be
salutary. A very well informed merchant, too, (a Scotchman, entirely in
the English trade) told me, bethought it would have another good effect,
by checking and withdrawing our extensive commerce and navigation (the
fruit of our natural position) within those bounds to which peace must
necessarily bring them. That this being done by degrees, will probably
prevent those numerous failures produced generally by a peace coming on
suddenly. Notwithstanding this decree, the sentiments of the merchants
become more and more cooled and settled down against arming. Yet it
is believed the Representatives do not cool; and though we think the
question against arming will be carried, yet probably by a majority
of only four or five. Their plan is to have convoys furnished for our
vessels going to Europe, and smaller vessels for the coasting defence.
On this condition, they will agree to fortify southern harbors and build
some galleys. It has been concluded among them, that if war takes place,
Wolcott is to be retained in office, that the President must give up
M'Henry, and as to Pickering they are divided, the eastern men being
determined to retain him, their middle and southern brethren wishing
to get rid of him.
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